Shifts in consumer behavior towards organic products: Theory-driven data analytics

Consumer behavior is key in shifts towards organic products. A diversity of factors influences consumer preferences, driving planned, impulsive, and unplanned purchasing decisions. We study choices among organic and conventional wine using an extensive survey among Australian consumers (N = 1003). We integrate five behavioral theories in the survey design, and use supervised and unsupervised machine learning algorithms for analysis. We quantify a gap between intention and behavior, and emphasize the importance of cognitive factors. Findings go beyond correlation to the causation of behavior when combining predictive prowess with explanatory power. Results reveal that affective factors and normative cues may prompt unplanned and spontaneous purchasing behavior, causing consumers to act against their beliefs.     

一种加权聚类划分决策树算法

针对斜划分决策树算法普遍存在时间效率低、部分算法仅能应用于二分类问题，提出了一种基于加权距离的聚类决策树算法。通过Relief-F算法为预测属性计算权重，并将权重用于树结点中数据的聚类过程，使用分簇结果对结点进行多路划分，得到可直接用于多分类问题的决策树。理论分析和实验结果表明，该算法与经典轴平行决策树相比，拥有更好的泛化能力以及相近的算法时间复杂度，与大部分斜决策树相比，在付出更少计算代价的前提下，获得了近似的正确率以及模型简洁度。     

父母陪伴对青少年非认知能力的影响 ——基于亲子共餐视角的准实验研究

采用"中国教育追踪调查(CEPS)"两期面板数据,利用双重差分倾向得分匹配法(PSM-DID),从亲子共餐这一微观视角来探究父母陪伴对青少年非认知能力的影响。结果显示,亲子共餐频率的降低对青少年的非认知能力总水平及其分维度情绪稳定性、宜人性和尽责性均有显著的负向影响,反之,亲子共餐频率的提高对青少年的非认知能力总水平有显著的正向影响,但具体从各维度来看,亲子共餐频率的提高仅对青少年的宜人性产生显著的正向影响,而对情绪稳定性和尽责性均无显著影响。     

失独父母的社会支持体系现状及优化策略

基于社会支持理论,探讨失独父母的社会支持现状及其影响因素。2018年3-4月以多阶段分层整群抽样的方法,在我国西部某地级市抽取失独父母样本量108,分析失独父母的社会人口学特征、欧洲五维健康量表(EQ-5D)和社会支持评定量表(SSRS)等。失独父母的主观支持分、客观支持分、对支持的利用度和社会支持总分的中位得分低于国内常模及普通老年人的分数,线性回归分析结果显示,是否有第三代,是失独父母主观支持分、对支持的利用度和社会支持总分的影响因素;婚姻状况和月收入是失独父母客观支持分的影响因素。对失独父母须建立长期、固定的帮扶机制;政府应加大对患有大病、有第三代、退休金较少甚或没有的失独父母的经济帮扶力度;应夯实家庭医生重点签约对象的服务内容;须构建多种形式的特殊养老政策,引导失独父母自励互勉,构建多元化的社会支持体系,帮助失独群体早日融入社会。     

‘Good’ farm management employment: Emerging values in the contemporary Irish dairy sector

The number of Irish dairy farms with herds greater than 100 cows has increased from 4.5 % in 2005 to 23 % in 2016. The abolition of the dairy quota in 2015 has led to predictions that this trend will continue and that an additional 6000 people will be required to work on dairy farms by 2025. Ownership of farms is esteemed, with farm employment perceived as a poor second option, so it is necessary to identify possible routes towards creating 'good' farm employment relationships. This paper explores the social, cultural and economic values of employers and employees in the context of early experiences of farm employment in post-quota Ireland. Using narrative analysis, this study found that employees gained esteem and pride from acquiring managerial responsibilities and receiving recognition for their abilities and accomplishments from their employers. Greater social recognition of employ’ abilities by peer groups and in networks (social capital) cemented ‘good employee’ status. Employers, in a context of unprecedented dairy production expansion, emphasised the need for and demonstrated changing of power structures to open up the farm to new forms of influence. However, employers’ reflexivity in support of employment relationships was undermined overall by what the management literature calls a weak ‘rewards system’ for employees. Without the supportive scaffolding of a formalised rewards system, relational gestures of responsibility-devolution and employ’ appreciation of employees may be insufficient to sustain quality farm management employment in the long term. Inevitably, this diminishes the attractiveness of farm employment, limiting the drawing of talent not only into farm employment but into associated capacity-building programmes.     

Does the spatial representation affect criteria weights in environmental decision-making? Insights from a behavioral experiment

The need and interest to consider cognitive and motivational biases has been recognized in different disciplines (e.g. economics, decision theory, risk analysis) and has recently reached environmental decision-making. Within this domain, the intrinsic presence of a spatial dimension of both alternatives and criteria calls for the use of maps throughout the decision-making process to properly represent the spatial distribution of the features under analysis. This makes spatial Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) a particularly interesting domain to explore new dimensions of cognitive biases. This study proposes a behavioral experiment aimed at discovering to what extent the spatial visualization (i.e. maps) of criteria versus the non-spatial one (i.e. tables) can bias the weight elicitation phase of a spatial MCDA process. The experiment simulates a very common analysis in environmental and land use planning: land suitability analysis. Our findings show that there are significant consequences on how important we perceive a certain criterion to be, depending on whether it is represented as a map or as a table among a mix of maps and tables. Indeed, the map representation of the same criterion leads to higher weights attributed to that criterion compared to the table representation. Visualizing the same information as a map or as a table, although technically equivalent, is thus not psychologically equivalent for Decision Makers. The results of this experiment are expected to have implications for spatial decision-making processes, by generating better awareness on the impacts of map-mediated land suitability analysis.     

Owners’ rule-based decision-making in family firm strategic renewal

We explore the process and consequences of family firm owners applying informal rules to decision-making in the context of later-generation family firms attempting strategic renewal. Based on the case studies of two firms in a Nordic country where the owners serve as non-executive board members, and following institutional action theory, we propose that informal rules – based on historical precedents and cumulative experience – applied to a family firm’s decision-making play many roles. They sustain family traditions over time, transfer experience over generations and depersonalise family members’ use of power. In addition, the rules on governance structure, governance processes and the content of the strategies form a hierarchy and can both facilitate and hinder the renewal.     

Can environmentally oriented CEOs and environmentally friendly suppliers boost the growth of small firms?

The core question addressed in the natural resource‐based view (NRBV) of the firm is how to develop and exploit resources beneficial for both the natural environment and firm performance. Due to the resource constraints and increased competition facing small manufacturing firms, achieving this is a challenge for such companies. Building on the NRBV and resource orchestration literatures, we examine the relationship between green purchasing capabilities (GPCs), CEO's environmental orientation (EO), and firm growth. Results from 304 Swedish small manufacturing firms indicate a significant relationship between GPC and growth, and this relationship is positively moderated by the EO of the CEO.     

基于改进TOPSIS法的供应商选择模型研究

为有效地帮助企业快速找到合适的供应商合作伙伴,采用直觉模糊集、评分函数等方法对TOPSIS评估法进行优化,并以此为基础建立了一种供应商选择模型。首先,采集和评估供应商的产品质量、产品价格、产品交货的可靠性、供应位置、财务情况、库存水平、劳资关系、发展能力和技术能力等相关信息,由专家给出主观评估信息,汇总为综合属性值;然后,通过直觉模糊熵确定各评估指标的权重;最后,综合考虑供应商选择决策过程中的多个目标和标准,应用改进TOPSIS法的对供应商进行分类选择。结果显示,基于改进TOPSIS法的供应商选择模型能够较准确地反映出各供应商的真实水平和对企业的潜在价值,可以有效地解决不确定条件下对供应商的选择问题,提高了供应商选择结果的可靠性。改进后的模型简便易行,具有良好的稳定性,对于合理制定企业供应商选择标准以及进一步优化决策模型具有一定的借鉴意义。     

基于Stacking模型融合的店铺销量预测

为了实现企业产品销量预估,提高生产供应的准确性与效率,提出了基于Stacking模型的融合算法进行销量预测。算法设计了两层堆叠的模型结构,初级学习器采用随机森林、支持向量回归、差分整合移动平均自回归、轻量级梯度提升机器和门控循环单元5种单模型,将分类与回归树作为次级学习器构成Stacking融合模型,并对数据进行了预测。预测结果显示,使用Stacking模型融合后得到了较好的预测结果,比单模型中效果最好的模型的均方根误差更小,平均绝对误差更小,决定系数值更大,表明Stacking融合模型的预测准确率更高。所设计模型可用于对企业店铺的产品销量进行预测,帮助企业更好地安排生产、营销活动,为减少库存、缩短生产销售周期提供数据支持,对企业生产决策有一定的参考价值。